Iraq: What's Next?
TIME'S Christopher Allbritton parses the outcome of Iraq's constitutional process
By CHRISTOPHER ALLBRITTON/BAGHDAD

Now that a draft of the Iraqi constitution has been accepted by the Iraqi National Assembly — but not, presumably a "final, final draft" as negotiations appear to be continuing in the hope of securing Sunni support — some form of the charter is set to go before the Iraqi people for an Oct. 15 referendum. It was pushed through over Sunni Arab objections to "federalism," which they say will spell the dismemberment of Iraq. A process that was to showcase Iraq's unity and bring disgruntled Sunnis into the political process has instead deepened divisions and stoked distrust.

What happens next?

Shi'ite and Kurdish politicians will hit the hustings in a bid to get their supporters to turn out in October to vote "yes" on the document. Sunni politicians and tribal leaders will do the same for a "no" vote, but it's unclear what the result will be. Under the terms of the Transitional Administrative Law, if two thirds of the voters in any three provinces vote "no," the charter is rejected, meaning that elections for a new parliament must be held and the process starts all over again. The Sunnis have majorities in four provinces, but in only two provinces are those majorities large enough to scuttle the constitution. Despite massive voter registration drives on the part of the Sunnis, to get the numbers needed, they will have to ally themselves with other forces, most likely those of populist cleric Moqtada al-Sadr, who commands the loyalty of millions of poor Shi'ites in Baghdad and across the south. Al-Sadr has spoken out against federalism and is involved in a power struggle with the major Shi'ite party backing the constitution. But thus far, he has kept his intentions in the referendum to himself, and is being courted by all sides.

If the constitution was so contentious, what does this mean for ending the insurgency?

Nothing good, unfortunately. The Americans pinned their hopes on the idea that Sunni Arabs — who make up the backbone of the insurgency — could be included in the drafting of the document and shown than the political process works. But the Shi'ites and Kurds railroaded the Sunnis and passed the constitution after breaking a promise to achieve consensus. Instead of uniting to approve a document, the sectarian groups are further apart than ever, split over the issue of federalism.

While the failure of the constitution in October would be an embarrassment for the United States' efforts here, it would be a blessing for Iraqis. The Sunnis could point to a political victory and then prepare for elections that would see them increase their representation in a future parliament. This would dilute the power of the religious Shi'ite parties, who the Sunnis view as cat's-paws Iran.  Read more.